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Showing posts with label Ananth's view. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ananth's view. Show all posts

Feb 11, 2012

Suzlon - the case study

Tulsi Tanti, moved from textiles business (SNS textiles) to setting up wind farms(Suzlon energy). Suzlon expanded from India to US, China and Australia and in 2007 bought Europe based RE power outbidding Areva. Tulsi's inspiration came from India's shaky power grid and rising costs of electricity. By 2001, Suzlon sold all its textile manufacturing and plugned into wind power turbine generators. Suzlon later grew to be the fourth largest wind turbine maker in the world. Starting at 1995 and becoming the 4th largest in 10 to 12 years was a great achievement. At the time he was managing the family textile business in Surat, a city in western India. The business was languishing, mainly because electricity was extremely expensive for businesses and the power grid was plagued with outages. It was a source of great annoyance for Tanti. In 1994, he ordered two wind turbines from Danish manufacturer Vestas, essentially taking his factory off the power grid.

IPO was launched in 2005 Sep which raised 1500 Cr and valued the company at around 18K Cr at listing. Now this company is valued at 5.5K Cr. When everything seemed to be going in Suzlon's favor, what borught it down. It was growing at an amazing pace, the promoters were not showing off their wealth, the industry was growing at an amazing rate and clean energy companies were supported by the governments. What went wrong? Was it the huge debt? Was this wrong acquisitions at the wrong time? Was this mishandling the acquisitions? Was this due to US companies finding fault with Suzlon's turbines.


Other business owners began showing an interest in his solution, prompting Tanti to wonder whether he might be in the wrong business. Wasn't wind energy the real business of the future? He discussed his ideas with his three brothers. Together they scraped together $600,000 (€387,000) in seed capital, founded Suzlon Energy and moved to Pune, a city near Bombay in southwestern India.


There was only one problem. None of the four brothers, all engineers, knew anything about wind energy. But as customers, they were all too familiar with the inadequacies of the industry. The turbines were supplied by the manufacturer, installed by another company and maintained by a third. By the time a turbine was up and running, the customer was often at his wits' end.
Tanti, realizing that a change was sorely needed, came up with the idea of offering a complete package of wind energy services. Suzlon would simply handle everything. Customers would not even have to install wind turbines on their own premises -- instead, a customer could buy a turbine at a faraway wind farm and would then own that turbine's output.

Suzlon was forced, grudgingly, to enter into joint venture agreements without gaining access to the technology. Tanti began his operations as a distributor of wind turbines manufactured by the German company Südwind. Despite his initial reluctance, the arrangement would prove to be a stroke of luck for Tanti's business.


Although Südwind, a small company founded by students at the Technical University of Berlin, built exceptional turbines, its engineer-owners knew very little about running a business. Südwind went into bankruptcy in the late 1990s and Tanti seized the opportunity, acquiring parts of the Germany company's R&D division. But instead of simply moving the technology to India, Tanti hired the former Südwind employees and set up an R&D laboratory in the northern German city of Rostock. Existing designs were fine-tuned at the laboratory, which also served as a training ground for young Indian technicians, who would later return to India to build turbines with their newly acquired expertise.
Similarly, Tanti managed to acquire a Dutch blade manufacturer. In 1999, when the Indian state of Maharashtra, where his business was located, passed a law that allowed companies to claim the costs of installing wind turbines as a tax deduction, Tanti had it made. By 2002 sales at Suzlon quadrupled to $131 million (€85 million).

Four years ago, investors urged him to sell the company. Tanti begged off, telling them: "In a few years, Suzlon will be buying up the leading European companies." As it turned out, he was right.


A trip to Pondicherry reveals that the Indians were already closing in on the Europeans at the time. The plant that Suzlon opened in this former French colony on India's east coast in 2004 can easily hold its own with Western competitors. The plant's enormous production buildings are well lit and almost clinically clean. Many of the men who assemble the turbines and sand the rotors there learned their trade at Tanti's German laboratories.

There are more than 1,200 workers at the Pondicherry plant, many with German expertise -- but being paid Indian salaries. It is these local production conditions that enable Suzlon to boast a 14 percent profit margin. The standard in the industry is 8 percent.

Three years ago, in 2005, Tanti converted his advantages over the competition into cash when he orchestrated a brilliant initial public offering. Suzlon raised $340 million (€219 million) and, from one day to the next, catapulted its founder and his family in the realm of the subcontinent's ultrarich. Tanti himself currently owns 16 percent of Suzlon, while the family owns 66 percent.

The down-to-earth Tantis have yet to succumb to megalomania. The company's Pune headquarters occupies a modest fifth floor of an office building. The 50-year-old CEO lives with his wife in a rented apartment next door to his brothers. Their two children attend university. The large clan gets together for meals as often as possible.

Tanti spends 300 days a year traveling, and yet he hasn't splurged on a private jet. Instead of acquiring these playthings of the nouveau riche, Tanti is far more interested in pursuing his plan: He is determined that Suzlon become one of the world's top three wind companies.

Acquisitions have helped the company reach fifth place on the list, helped along by perhaps its greatest coup of all: In 2007, Tanti suddenly entered the bidding for Repower, a major German wind turbine producer, and ended up outbidding the French nuclear energy giant Areva.

It wasn't cheap, but it was a sensation. In May 2007, Suzlon paid €450 million ($698 million) for 33.6 percent of Repower. It was the largest acquisition an Indian company had ever made in Germany.
But from the very beginning, the German turbine builders were never quite comfortable with their new bosses, fearing that their turbine blueprints would soon be copied in India. Tanti, who had assumed the chairmanship of Repower's supervisory board, insisted that he had no such intentions.
In fact, German corporation law would have made such a technology transfer impossible. Suzlon would have needed a subordination agreement to gain access to the blueprints. To that end, Tanti would have had to submit a takeover bid to Repower shareholders, but first would have had to acquire shares from the major shareholders, including Areva. The French had an option, exercisable after a year, to sell their stake in Repower.
The year had not yet expired before the first dispute erupted over whether Repower was being sucked dry by the Indians. Tanti was annoyed and publicly complained about the Hamburg-based company's lack of respect for his commitment. After all, he said, he was creating jobs. But he left no doubt that he wanted to gain a majority stake in Repower. That was exactly what the market wanted to hear. In mid-May, the company's stock price shot up to over €240 ($372), from €160 (€248) at the time of the takeover.
Tanti's problem was that the Areva shares, which he planned to acquire in late May, were suddenly very expensive. What he did next, though, no one saw coming. Four days before the expiration of Areva's sales option, he suggested, during a financial press conference in Mumbai, that Suzlon might consider selling some of its Repower shares to turn a profit.
The news had its desired effect. Repower fell from €240 to €200 ($310) a share. Executives at Repower's Hamburg headquarters were livid. It was unprecedented, a major shareholder talking down the company's share price.

Tanti's behavior triggered "major irritations," a company spokesman says diplomatically. The Indian's effort to appease the Germans in an e-mail had little effect, as did the news, a few days later, that he intended to buy the shares owned by Areva and the Spanish energy company Martifer after all.

Whatever the purpose of Tanti's maneuver was, it attracted the attention of Germany's Federal Supervisory Authority for Financial Services (BaFin). "There is no investigation underway, but we are observing the situation," says BaFin spokeswoman Anja Engelland. Her agency's interest in the case is likely to have increased significantly last week.

On Thursday, Suzlon announced its purchase of the Areva shares. According to traders, Tanti paid less than the current share price, but Areva was apparently satisfied to walk away with a profit of €350 million ($543 million). In addition, the Indians have quietly bought Repower shares on the market in recent days, bringing their stake in the company to 66 percent of its stock. This was not welcome news to investors and, on Friday, the Repower stock price dropped by 6.5 percent. Once again, concerns over a possible know-how transfer are making the rounds. Although a Suzlon spokesman called these concerns "pure speculation," the company didn't exactly deny that they were justified.

But, more recently, Tanti faces problems that could be far more threatening than disgruntlement at Repower. In the United States, Suzlon is currently experiencing the biggest debacle in its relatively short history. The Indians were forced to recall 1,251 rotor blades from a wind farm in the Midwest when many of the blades broke after being used for only a short period of time.

A Suzlon spokesman blames the broken blades on an unpredicted, strong shift in wind direction and says that the company now plans to reinforce the giant blades -- at an estimate cost of $30 million (€19 million). Industry insiders doubt that this will be enough. Repairs to a weak point in a blade are costly, they say, and usually last only a few years. Besides, Suzlon could face claims for damages from the customer.
But Tulsi Tanti sees none of these problems as being insurmountable. He has faith in his numbers, and the numbers are good.

The company's sales grew by 71 percent, three times the industry average, in the last fiscal year. Suzlon's revenues amounted to $3.4 billion (€2.2 billion), and its pre-tax gain climbed to $480 million (€310 million). The company dominates the Indian market and holds a 14 percent share of the global market. Its factories are humming away in Pipestone, in the US state of Minnesota and in Tianjin, China. It has orders on the books worth $4.3 billion (€2.8 billion). And it plans to double annual production by 2010.

But there could be a bump in the road ahead. What happens if the advantages he reaps from being based in India begin to fade? Suzlon owes much of its success to lower production costs. What if they go up? Even Indian farmers, the ones who toil away in the fields next to the wind turbines, have figured out that someone is making a lot of money with those turbines. "Suddenly they're asking 20 times as much for their land," officials at Suzlon complain. Others want lease payments for the turbine sites, as well as compensation for the use of their right-of-way.

If Suzlon refuses to pay, the farmers block the access routes with their buffaloes. In 2007, 44 wind turbines, or one-third of total capacity, had to be shut down temporarily in Sangli because of such campaigns. In another location, the poverty-stricken rural population made off with aluminum ladders and copper cables from 63 new turbines and sold the valuable parts to scrap metal dealers.

In the village of Chikhli in the Satara district, angry residents recently caused turbines to be shut down, because they felt that real estate brokers had cheated them when they sold their land. Although the sales took place 10 years ago, the former landowners are convinced that there is still money to be had. Whether or not Suzlon decides to play along, the company will suffer the consequences.
In 2005, he was ranked # 8 in forbes richest Indians:

#8 Tulsi Tanti



Age: 47


Net Worth: $ 3.7 billion


Hometown: Pune


Married, 2 Children

 
Source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,559370,00.html
www.forbes.com/lists/2005/77/QD9Q.html
Chart from moneycontrol.com

Jan 28, 2012

Bharat Gears - 505688

Name of CompanyBharat Gears
BSE Code505688
NSE CodeBHARATGEAR
ICICI Code
Established
My TakeLike 
HeadquartersFaridabad
PromotersSurinder Kanwar(CMD), Sameer Kanwar (JMD)
StoryThis company manufactures automotive gears mainly for commercial vehicles, farm vehicles and construction equipment. India is its major market and US is slowly adding volumes. Inputs are Steel, power and fuel. 
SectorGears
Sub-sector
Website http://www.bharatgears.com/
Positives51% promoter holding with no pledging. regular dividend, can expect a little less than 2%.
Negatives Small company manufacturing gears. Technology and marketing is a problem for small engineering players
Peers
News
Price @ blogged57 (27-Jan-11)
Cost of company44 Cr MCap
Group
Growth

Jan 26, 2012

Provogue (India) Ltd - 532647

Name of CompanyProvogue (India) Ltd
BSE Code532647
NSE CodePROVOGUE
ICICI Code
Established1997
My TakeDislike 
HeadquartersMumbai
Promoters Nikhil Anupendra Chaturvedi, Salil Anupendra Chaturvedi, Rakesh Rawat, Deep Subash Gupta, Nigam Patel, Akhil Anupendra Chaturvedi, Anisha Chaturvedi, Veena Gupta, Vandana Vaidh, Anish Chhabra 
StoryProvogue is a textile/clothing brand which sells across multiple Provogue stores. It’s subsidiary Prozone is a chain of malls which are being built. Dislike because of pledged shares – otherwise seems to be a good company, but I don’t buy companies with pledged shares unless I am very sure of the company’s financial position.
SectorRetail
Sub-sector
Websitewww.provogue.net  
PositivesReserves have increased from 235 Cr to 709 Cr from FY07 to FY11. Regular dividend paying company – can expect 0.8% to 1% dividend yield.
NegativesDebt has increased from 55 to 246 Cr from FY07 to FY11.  Promoters hold 45% out of which 33% is pledged. So, essentially promoters hold 12%.
Peers
News
Price @ blogged25 (22-Jan-12)
Cost of company286 Cr market cap for a 33.41 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 8.56 times. This is for a company with 246.24 Cr debt and 709.81 Cr reserves
Group
GrowthGood growth company.  

P G Foils Ltd - 526747

Name of CompanyP G Foils Ltd.
BSE Code526747
NSE CodePGFOILQ
ICICI Code
Established
My Take So-So
HeadquartersAhmedabad
PromotersPankaj Shah, Abhay Shah,  Atika Shah, etc along with promoter companies hold 51%
StoryAluminium companies need a lot of electricity. They buy part of the energy and have installed diesel power generators and wind mills. Out of the 130 Cr spent, 112 Cr is for raw materials.
SectorAluminium
Sub-sector
Website http://www.pgfoils.com/
PositivesPE is at 4.64 considering trailing 4Q NP. Dividend yield is 1%. Promoters hold 51%, with no pledges. Sales have increased from 116 Cr to 153 Cr from FY07 to FY11. 
NegativesDividend is not regular – paid 1 rupee in 2005, 2008, 2011.  Website is still under construction. Company has manageable but big debt which can bring down profitability. Suddenly in FY11 balance sheet they have a bank cash balance of 37 Cr. Profits have not been consistent.
PeersHindalco, Nalco, Century Extrusion, Maan Alum
News
Price @ blogged95.7 (22-Jan-12)
Cost of company77.52 Cr market cap for a 10.05 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 7.71 times. This is for a company with 56.04 Cr debt and 68.72 Cr reserves
GroupCyclicals
GrowthBottomline is wavering due to variations in Aluminium prices. They are a normal growth, wavering profits company. 

Wendt India Ltd - 505412

Name of CompanyWendt India Ltd.
BSE Code505412
NSE CodeWENDT
ICICI Code
Established1980
My TakeLike 
HeadquartersBangalore, plant in Hosur
PromotersWendt/Murugappa group 
StoryThey manufacture super abrasive grinding wheels (Diamond and cubic Boron Nitride), grinding machines and tools. The company is now a 40-40 partnership between Carborundum Universal (murugappa group) and Wendt group GmbH (Germany).  Subsidiaries have plants in Thailand and Sharjah.
SectorAbrasives
Sub-sector
Website http://www.wendtindia.com
PositivesZero debt company. Sales have increased from 57 to 89 Cr from FY07 to FY11. Profits have also risen from 8.7 to 15.95 in the same period. Promoters hold 80% of the shares, none pledged. Can expect a regular dividend of 1.25% at current prices (Rs. 20 a year)
NegativesCan buy at around 10 times PE 
PeersCarborundum, Orient Abrasives, Grindwell
News
Price @ blogged1700 (22-Jan-12)
Cost of company340 Cr market cap for a 15.95 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 21.32 times. This is for a company with 0 Cr debt and 56.14 Cr reserves
GroupFast growers
GrowthGood growth company, NP has doubled in 5 years

Dec 28, 2011

A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services - 533292

BSE: 533292 
NSE: A2ZMES

Sector: EPC, Engineering, Power


Jhunjhunwala stock, very volatile. Has been falling since listing in Dec 2010. Now at 12 times PE. This company was established in 2002. Serves state Ebs, State distribution companies and transmission companies. EPC company focussing on power.


http://www.a2zgroup.co.in/

The group lists the following companies as group companies:



  • A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services Limited




  • A2Z Infraservices Limited




  • A2Z Infrastructure Limited




  • A2Z Powercom Limited




  • A2Z Powertech Limited




  • A2Z Water Solutions Ltd




  • A2Z E Waste Management Ltd




  • As this has listed only for a year, it is better to wait to understand the regular dividend payout. 

    Pledged shares - Promoters have 42% shareholding. 17% is pledged. So essentially promoters hold 25%.

    Amit Mittal the major shareholder himself has pledged 40% of his shareholding.

    This share is case of major fall in prices and great loss to public who just invested because of Jhunjhunwala, engineering and power. It is not right to pay 30-40 times earnings for new companies listing in BSE comparing them to Areva and Alstom which are MNC companies. Now Areva and Alstom trade at 15-20 PE. Now A2Z is trading at 12 times. I feel there is even more downside. can buy at 10 times.

    If you had bought this is IPO at Rs. 400. you have 25% of your money remaining. This is why I stay out of unknown companies in IPOs.

    Oct 12, 2011

    Gold - Who sells gold?

    In India, everyone I know only buys gold. No one sells them. Glitter of gold is always invigorating to the average Indian female. From my pea brain, I also know that women from Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malasia, Philipines and African countries such as South Africa, Kenya and Zimbabwe are also gold crazy. 

    Governments, banks and even some huge organizations hoard gold assuming gold is a safe haven. What do they even do with that? they just spend on a huge security system and an strong vault which would keep the value locked in it. What happens if gold price falls a bit - they still hold it.

    More than women and governments, there are these ETFs which buy gold on behalf of many investors (investors are both people and organizations). This is the category which really manipulates the price of gold. The ease which with you can buy or sell ETFs make this crazy market even crazier. 

    So, when I sit back and read that Marc Faber expects prices to go down to $1500 or even lower to $1100, I am angered at the ETF investor who has both been pumping in money when gold was lower and sell when gold was higher.

    Sep 13, 2011

    Spicejet - is it a good time to buy?

    Maran buys more stake in Spicejet putting in 130 Cr and making his stake 43%. Does that mean it is profitable to buy Spicejet at this time?

    I dont think so. I always am not a fan of airline companies. Or any companies which do not make profits.

    the company just shows 85 Cr of debt and 90 Cr of negative reserves. For a 1000 Cr market cap and FY11 earnings of 100 Cr seems like around 10 times and hence attractive. Until 2 years back this company made heavy losses. these have still not been recovered.

    But the negatives are that, this is a very competitive industry with Air India, Jet and Kingfisher taking most of the costly tickets. So called no-frills airlines are also very competitive with JetLite, KF(delta), Paramount, GoAir, etc.

    With crude prices at more than $100, airlines cannot be profitable as they need to competitive, i.e. low revenue.

    As it is seductive to own an airline, a lot of people try to own an airline. Richard Branson (Virgin) and VIjay Mallya are of that breed. They own an airline and that is a style statement.

    Worldover, airline stocks have been the most speculative, they have never made continuous profits.

    Some people say Maran has put in 2G money into Spicejet. To me, what matters is, can Spice pull off?

    I appreciate Maran for the way he built Sun (though with political connections) - it was a well run company. But can he make this a sucess story? Can putting money into a loss making enterprise, buying more airplanes, improving customer service, introducing more routes really help a faltering company? I dont know.

    let us watch and see. To me, I dont know, but I feel it is too difficult a task.

    Sep 11, 2011

    Sanjivani paranteral Ltd - 531569

    Name of CompanySanjivani paranteral Ltd.
    BSE Code
    531569
    NSE CodeNot listed
    ICICI Code
    Established
    My Take Dislike
    HeadquartersMumbai
    Promoters
    Story
    Sectorpharmaceuticals
    Sub-sector
    Websitehttp://www.sanjivani.co.in/  
    PositivesRegularly profitable company. Reasonable growth in the last 5 years.
    NegativesNo dividends, very low promoter holding, very low NPMs in FY11, Interest payments are increasing faster than sales – In FY11, 5% of sales were interest payments.
    Peers
    News
    Price @ blogged29.40 (09-Sep-11)
    Cost of company17.34 Cr market cap for a 2.73 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 7 times. This is for a company with 44.84 Cr debt and 22.09 Cr reserves
    GroupDull
    GrowthRevenues have grown from 70 Cr to 145 from FY07 to FY11. NP has in fact come down to half of what it used to be. 

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