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Sep 13, 2011

Spicejet - is it a good time to buy?

Maran buys more stake in Spicejet putting in 130 Cr and making his stake 43%. Does that mean it is profitable to buy Spicejet at this time?

I dont think so. I always am not a fan of airline companies. Or any companies which do not make profits.

the company just shows 85 Cr of debt and 90 Cr of negative reserves. For a 1000 Cr market cap and FY11 earnings of 100 Cr seems like around 10 times and hence attractive. Until 2 years back this company made heavy losses. these have still not been recovered.

But the negatives are that, this is a very competitive industry with Air India, Jet and Kingfisher taking most of the costly tickets. So called no-frills airlines are also very competitive with JetLite, KF(delta), Paramount, GoAir, etc.

With crude prices at more than $100, airlines cannot be profitable as they need to competitive, i.e. low revenue.

As it is seductive to own an airline, a lot of people try to own an airline. Richard Branson (Virgin) and VIjay Mallya are of that breed. They own an airline and that is a style statement.

Worldover, airline stocks have been the most speculative, they have never made continuous profits.

Some people say Maran has put in 2G money into Spicejet. To me, what matters is, can Spice pull off?

I appreciate Maran for the way he built Sun (though with political connections) - it was a well run company. But can he make this a sucess story? Can putting money into a loss making enterprise, buying more airplanes, improving customer service, introducing more routes really help a faltering company? I dont know.

let us watch and see. To me, I dont know, but I feel it is too difficult a task.

Sep 11, 2011

Sanjivani paranteral Ltd - 531569

Name of CompanySanjivani paranteral Ltd.
BSE Code
531569
NSE CodeNot listed
ICICI Code
Established
My Take Dislike
HeadquartersMumbai
Promoters
Story
Sectorpharmaceuticals
Sub-sector
Websitehttp://www.sanjivani.co.in/  
PositivesRegularly profitable company. Reasonable growth in the last 5 years.
NegativesNo dividends, very low promoter holding, very low NPMs in FY11, Interest payments are increasing faster than sales – In FY11, 5% of sales were interest payments.
Peers
News
Price @ blogged29.40 (09-Sep-11)
Cost of company17.34 Cr market cap for a 2.73 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 7 times. This is for a company with 44.84 Cr debt and 22.09 Cr reserves
GroupDull
GrowthRevenues have grown from 70 Cr to 145 from FY07 to FY11. NP has in fact come down to half of what it used to be. 

Educomp Solutions - Is it worthy?

Educomp is at a 2150 Cr market cap as of today when it quotes at Rs. 224. Is Educomp worth this much?

Let's see. FY11 report says they reach 16 million students through 26000 schools.

Searching for millenuim schools in google would fetch a lot of schools which are coming up with the Educomp model. Subsidiaries like Gateforum and Vidyamandir classes are well respected test prep classes. They claim to be the largest CA coaching in India now.

The best thing according to me is this is just at the starting stage. A very few schools have implemented smart teching methods. Education is regarded very important in India (as in aspiring coutries like China, Indonesia, etc). As India become richer, people would not mind spending on education.

The worst thing is that this is heavy competition industry where low capital and low experience is needed to start a similar business.

Lot of IT raids at Educomp offices have brought the share price less than 200, it has mildly recovered now though.

Shantanu Prakash (and Anjlee Prakash) has been holding neat 50% shares and have not pledged any shares. This gives some confidence in the company.

This company makes 1000 Cr revenue. They show 4 segments - School learning systems (the biggest and almost whole of the profits), K-12, Higher learning solutions and Online & Retail. they are making around 400 Cr profits with around 40% NPMs.

600 Cr debt makes us worry a bit.

In all, integrity of the promoters, debt management and focus on the right areas are important for the company to be a good bet. If what happened till now will last, I would rather believe in the management.

As most of the revenue comes from School learning systems - software, equipment and training - if these can bring in 1000 Cr revenue in this fiscal, with a 40% NPM. I guess it is worth more esp as it can grow heavily.

Everonn - news and views

This is a Chennai based education company with a market cap of 491 Cr at current price of Rs 256 (PE of 6.4).

P kishore is the founder and MD of Everonn education which claims to be the largest VSAT education network in the world. He was arrested in early September 2011 for tax evasion - bribe of 50 lakh was given to supress 116 Cr of income. 

Immediately after the arrest, Nikhil Gandhi, who was an independent director, took over as Chariman of the board as JJ Irani, former director of Tata sons and known for his corporate governance, resigned from the position.

Susha John the co-promoter was promoted as the CEO to run the company. 

I wonder why would some public company suppress income. Is it to move money into promoters pockets either to get back the pledged shares or to retain personal earnings?

Nikhil Gandhi - Is Mukesh Ambani backing him?

Nikhil Gandhi
Flagship: SKIL Infrastructure
Founded in: 1984 (it’s SKIL’s silver jubilee year), along with his younger brother Bhavesh Gandhi
Claim to fame: Built India’s first private all-weather port, the Pipavav Port, in 1996
Other projects completed: Pipavav Railway, first-of-its-kind JV with the Indian Railways; Pipavav Expressway, a 20-km, 4-lane road to the Pipavav port from the state highway
What happened next: Sold SKIL’s holdings in the port for an undisclosed price in 2005 to a Maersk/A.P. Moller-led consortium. The rail JV was transferred to the railways and the expressway to the Gujarat Government.
Had investment of roughly $500 million in these projects
Biggest influence: Dhirubhai Ambani
Likes to consider himself: A pioneer in infrastructure, an “infrapreneur”

Three of Gandhi’s acquisitions soar in a falling market.
 Why is the man who’s talking about multi-billion dollar investments picking up micro-cap firms with an equity base in the Rs 3-10.7 crore range? The answer would be evident from the way the stock prices of these three companies, Horizon Infrastructure, JPT Securities and KLG Capital, have been regularly hitting new highs in 2008. 

At a time when the broader market has only been falling, these three companies in which the SKIL group has mopped up majority stakes have soared between 200 and 1,700 per cent till June 30, 2008! SKIL group company Awaita Properties bought 60 per cent in JPT Securities from its promoters through market purchases in April and 60.5 per cent in KLG Capital in February. 

In Horizon Infrastructure the group has a 55.3 per cent stake. Gandhi told BT that all these companies are now a part of the SKIL group and he has big plans for them. Horizon Infrastructure, for instance, will develop tourism infrastructure in Himachal Pradesh.




Nikhil Gandhi
is right hand of Mukesh Ambani and has pioneered MUMBAI SEZ , chandigarh sez,PIPAV port , PIPAV shipyard ..he is the main man who look after Mukesh Ambani group's infrastructure foray ..Jai corp (he was the main person for
the share price rise and not Anand Jain )and Horizon infrastructure (from
40 to 1800 in 1 year) are companies owned by him .. 



Biggest losers this year - Till September 2011

CompanyPrice on 03/01/2011Price as on 08/09/2011Change (%)
GTL 416.6552.7-87.3515
KGN Industries21228.85-86.3915
GTL Infra43.0512.57-70.8014
D B Realty197.3559.3-69.9519
SpiceJet 81.925.45-68.9255
IVRCL133.945.85-65.758
SKS Microfinance646.7253.05-60.8706
Jet Airways 761.2299.3-60.6805
Jai Corp224.991.35-59.3819
Guj NRE Coke69.328.35-59.0909
Jindal Poly Film532.1218.15-59.0021
Educomp Sol .543.2229.9-57.6767
GVK Power Infra.41.617.85-57.0913
NCC151.965.75-56.7149
BEML Ltd1026.6470.05-54.2129
BGR Energy Sys.735.8341.05-53.6491
Sunteck Realty549.55263.25-52.0972
Bajaj Hindusthan120.3557.9-51.8903
Hathway Cable16984.4-50.0592




Source: Moneycontrol

Sep 9, 2011

Bombay Burma - why to buy

Ashish Tater on moneycontrol:
One reason why I like this is stock is their strong balance sheet. The stock might bore you from a  longer term perspective. It may be hovering around Rs 400-500 mark. As of now it is trading at Rs 407-410 levels. One can take a call of 20% from eight-12 months perspective.
From a balance sheet perspective, it owns almost 51% in Britannia Industries through its subsidiaries. Current market cap of Britannia is around Rs 5,600 crore. This 51% roughly works out to be Rs 2,800 crore and the market cap is Rs 560 crore. As a holding company it warrants that 20% discount. So it is fairly valued.
Its exposure to Bombay Dyeing was almost 14% so it is again a safe bet. Interestingly, Britannia Industries is available at a dividend yield of 1.6%, similar is the case with Bombay Burmah. They will be getting Rs 35-40 crore in terms of free cash flows to equities through dividends from Britannia.
Last year they sold their JV into the rubber JV. This year they have sold their sunmica division so there is some reorganization happening in Bombay Burmah or the Wadia group. There is lot of potential going forward. Their core business is tea and plantations and they have good presence in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
They have good ability to generate pre-cash flow to equity. So from fundamental perspective, if one ignores the balance sheet value it will be somewhere around Rs 180-200. On conservative side, the replacement value of this plantation business works out to be Rs 180-200 so Rs 400 plus the investment.
People try to get in the stock at Rs 380 to 400 because they have actually generated free cash flow of equity of close to Rs 165 crore. This year they have fetched Rs 100 crore on sunmica division and Rs 65 crore from JV ventures sell. It is a cash rage company with limited downside and has a potential target of Rs 500. One can take a trading bet in this turmoil times.

--------------------
HNIs raising stake in Bombay Burmah in moneycontrol
Most of the HNIs are looking for stories where there are embedded values and there is valuation in the subsidiaries. There are stocks that invest into group companies and other companies; the values of which are significantly above the market cap of the company. One such company is Bombay Burmah.

Bombay Burmah ’s market cap is at Rs 1,165 crore. Its total investment is Rs 1,710 crore. The total value of its investment is nearly 50% more than market capital. This would mean that the value of subsidiaries would be nearly 50% more than the market cap. In Bombay Dyeing , they hold 15% stake. In Britannia , they hold 25% stake. In Go Air , they control around 40% stake.

It’s investment in Bombay Dyeing, Britannia and Go Air is as follows:

Investment                   (Rs Cr)
Bombay Dyeing             400
Britannia                       910
Go Air                           400
Total                             1710

Go Air is an unlisted entity. CNBC-TV18’s analysis has taken the valuations on the basis of Spice Jet. Spice Jet was having an 8.3% market share and is commanding a market cap of about Rs 1500 crore. If one sees the latest figures that are released, Go Air has a market share of around 5.5 % and by that valuation, the figure should come at around Rs 1000 crore.

Also, there are media reports suggesting that Paramount is looking at buying the company. The management of Go Air denies this. But, the valuation that they are likely to pay for the 40% stake is around USD 100-150 billion. So even on the basis of this, it will command around Rs 1000 crore market-cap; and 40% will be around Rs 400 crore.

Thus, the total valuation of Bombay Dyeing, Go Air and Britannia would be around Rs 1700 crore.

Since all the investment is done via subsidiary companies, one would not see all the value of investments on the balance sheet side. Hence, it’s very important to see all the investments that are there in the subsidiary companies. This could be a good company for investment, as per CNBC-TV18 analysis.

This is not a holding company. It has operations in tea, coffee plantations, rubber, palm-oil segment. So it commands an EPS of its own. On trading basis, for FY07, it had an EPS of around Rs 34 and in FY06, it was around Rs 35. This means it is trading at around 24-25 times.

In the kind of business that they are in, this looks a bit expensive, if compared with the peers. But the valuations of the company make it attractive.

Krypton Industries - 523550

Name of CompanyKrypton Industries Ltd.
BSE Code
523550
NSE CodeNot listed
ICICI Code
Established1990
My TakeDislike
HeadquartersKolkata
Promoters
StoryManufactures cycle tyres and footwear under the brand Softflex.
SectorTyres
Sub-sectorCycle tyres, footwear
Websitehttp://www.kryptongroup.com/  
Positives
NegativesPaid 6% of the revenues as interest. Does not pay dividends. Lot of insider trading. FY09 was loss making. NPM in last 5 years between -3.5 to 12%. Lot of competition from local players.
Peers
News
Price @ blogged14.47 (09-Sep-11)
Cost of company16.8 Cr market cap for a 1.03 Cr NP in FY ending Mar ' 11 makes it 15.9 times. This is for a company with 12.12 Cr debt and 6.63 Cr reserves
Group
GrowthRevenues have grown in 5 years from 11 to 24.5 Cr. NP has moved 1.31 to -3.55 and back to 1 Cr in these 5 years.

Frontier Springs - 522195

Name of CompanyFrontier Springs
BSE Code522195
NSE CodeNot listed
ICICI Code
Established
My TakeLike 
HeadquartersKanpur
PromotersKL Bhatia and family 
StoryThe website claims the company is the world's leading manufacfturer of hot wound springs for transportation, industrial and goverment applications. ( what would government use the spring for? I guess it means PSUs like BEML, BHEL)
SectorAuto anciliary
Sub-sectorSpring for auto and other engineering companies
Websitehttp://www.frontiersprings.co.in/ 
Positives52% promoter holding, none pledged. regularly profitable - NPMs between 3-12%. low interest payments of less than half crore.
Negativesdoes not pay a regular dividend. NPMs are wavering. Not sure if Ashish Chugh is playing with the stock - he has recommended this as early as 2006 and he holds the stock now as well. 
Peers
News
Price @ blogged35.40 (09-Sep-11)
Cost of company13.94 Cr for 5 Cr FY11 profit makes it 2.75 times. FY11 had more NPM than other years.
Group
Growth FY11 revenue has grown to 43 Cr from

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